Comment: Retail’s prospects look encouraging in the new year

The retail focus right now is on ensuring jingling tills over the festive season but thoughts are already turning to prospects in 2015.

But, unsurprisingly for an industry that thinks about Christmas in July, thoughts are turning to the new year and what it may hold.

Politics is likely to dominate the wider agenda – indeed it already is – as a general election looms.

The rise of upstart Ukip, the travails of the main parties and uncertainty over the UK’s relationship with Europe are all creating anxiety.

But perhaps the turbulence will worry retailers less than the politicians who will dominate the airwaves with their competing visions of a land of milk and honey or prophecies of doom.

That’s the view of broker Cantor Fitzgerald’s retail team. After analysing John Lewis data they concluded that the last three general elections – including the 2010 cliff-hanger – had little impact on either retail sales or general retailers’ share prices.

And setting aside all the impending noise from Messrs Cameron, Farage and Miliband, prospects for retailers look encouraging.

The likelihood of wage price inflation, lower fuel prices and more PPI payments should stimulate consumer spending, Cantor believes. The biggest concern, and one that still seems fairly distant, would be an interest rate rise.

A bigger worry for retailers than the impending hustings, and one that undoubtedly does affect shopping habits, is the weather.

Can whoever wins the election fix that please?