Retail shares, like the temperature, dipped below zero as the big freeze was reflected in icy investor attitudes towards stores on fears that trading will suffer in the golden period.
The exception was French Connection. The fashion group’s shares went stratospheric for reasons unknown. There have been signs that things are improving at French Connection following restructuring but there have been no announcements or brokers’ notes to have put a rocket under the share price right now. One broker said it appeared that retail, rather than institutional investors, have been buying in to French Connection.
The big theme of the week was stakebuilding by existing investors in retailers, including the challenged ones. Russian oligarch Alexander Mamut upped his holding in entertainment group HMV to 5%.
There has been speculation that he sees opportunities to forge links between HMV and his Russian mobiles business but his actual intentions are not clear. Broker Arden downgraded HMV from buy to add and said: “The big trading week is still to come and the new release schedule is promising but the sales trend/structural downtrend is not HMV’s friend.”
Similarly, activist investor Knight Vinke took its stake in Comet-owner Kesa above 10%. Knight Vinke’s interest has stoked speculation that dramatic change may be on the cards at Kesa but the Anglo-French electricals group’s chairman David Newlands has downplayed that possibility (Retail Week, December 17).
Also stakebuilding was Microsoft billionaire Bill Gates. An investment vehicle connected to the tycoon has increased its stake in Carpetright to 6%. Oriel, however, rates Carpetright a sell following first-half results. “Forecasts are at risk here and trading on one of
the highest multiples in the sector cannot be justified in the face of deteriorating like-for-like sales,” Oriel maintained.
Young fashion star SuperGroup lost lustre despite reporting surging sales and profits on Wednesday. The shares plunged 16% because of cost pressure concerns. Peel Hunt put the shares under review because they had reached its target. Execution Noble stuck to its sell advice. However, Altium moved from hold to buy.
Harris Associates, the US fund that owns 20% of JJB Sports, gave the retailer some succour by pledging continued support for the troubled retailer. JJB, in the midst of a turnaround programme, is at risk of breaching its banking covenants and trading remains tough.
Now, the final countdown to Christmas will help dictate how retail shares fare next year.
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