Coronavirus to wipe £1.7trn off global retail sales

Experts from research and advisory firm Forrester have warned it will take four years for retail sales to bounce back to pre-pandemic levels following this year’s anticipated 9.6% slump.

Europe’s largest economies are expected to be the worst hit by the health emergency.

Retail sales in the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy combined are forecast to slide €260bn (£225.9bn) this year. The decline would mark a 10.4% drop in sales on 2019 levels.

Forrester’s research suggests UK retail sales will plummet £56bn, or 11.4%, on last year’s total.

Coronavirus is predicted to leave a $321bn hole in retail sales in the US – a 9.1% decline year on year.

In Canada, Forrester expects retail revenues to fall $25bn, which would represent a 7.7% slowdown in sales.

China is predicted to be the worst-hit market in the Asia Pacific region, after it lost $192bn in retail sales during January and February alone compared to the same two months last year.

Asia Pacific as a whole is expected to suffer a $767bn retraction in retail sales year on year – 10% of last year’s total.

Forrester principal forecast analyst Michael O’Grady said: “Covid-19 is significantly impacting the global retail landscape.

“Retail categories like grocery and essential consumables are performing well, while other categories like fashion, beauty and cosmetics are seeing a marked decline in consumer spend.

“In 2020, there will be a significant decline in global retail sales, particularly with non-essential items sold offline, which will be a big challenge for brick-and-mortar retailers. Online sales, however, will be more resilient.”