We can all make educated guesses, but I cannot remember a time when we have been faced with such uncertainty as when we – hopefully – re-emerge from lockdown on a permanent basis over the next few months.

‘Non-essential’ retail stores have reopened. There may well be some initial euphoria – just look at the advance bookings for restaurants – but there is a great danger in interpreting this period of trading as a trend in either the longer or even the medium term. 

Putting aside the disruption created by Covid, the macroeconomic situation isn’t great. Economic growth was difficult before the pandemic – UK GDP grew by a mere 1.4% in 2019.