Shop prices fall in run-up to Christmas trading

Shop price deflation in November was 0.5%, compared to a 0.4% decrease in October. This was below the 12-month average price increase of 0.1% and the six-month price decrease of 0.4%.

Fresh food inflation slowed to 0.6% in November, compared to 0.8% in October. This was below both the 12- and six-month averages, according to the latest BRC Nielsen Shop Price Index.

Food inflation generally eased to 1.4% in November, down from 1.6% in October. Ambient food inflation also eased slightly to 2.6%.

BRC boss Helen Dickinson said shoppers would be encouraged by the fall in prices in the run-up to Christmas but said several factors “could push food prices up in the longer term”.

She added: “Shop prices continued to fall in November for the sixth consecutive month. This was driven, in part, by an easing of inflation for fresh food due to a strong crop yield for fresh fruits in the UK, and a fall in the global price of dairy. Furthermore, non-food prices fell well below the 12-month average. The economic and political uncertainty has weakened demand for non-essential items. As a result, retailers have pushed for even deeper price cuts to encourage consumers to open their wallets.

“While consumers will welcome the fall in prices in the run-up to Christmas, there are various factors that could push food prices up in the longer term. These include the impact of flooding on the yields of many root vegetables and the rising global prices of meat.

“However, the biggest threat to future prices remains the risk of a chaotic no-deal Brexit pushing up the costs of EU imports, which account for 30% of the food we consume. The next government should aim to provide clarity on the UK’s future relationship with the EU as soon as possible.”