Consumer confidence rises in June as non-essential stores reopen

Shopper sentiment improved by six points in the last two weeks in comparison with May, but remains low at -30, just four points above the initial April fall of -34 and down against a score of -13 this time last year.

People’s concerns about their personal finances over the last year abated slightly month on month, up one point to -9 according to GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index. Looking ahead to the next 12 months, sentiment improved six points to -4. 

Consumer confidence in the general economic situation also improved. GfK reported a one-point increase in sentiment for the past year to -59, although this marked a 27-point decline year on year from June 2019. 

Expectations for the next 12 months grew nine points at -48 points; this is 15 points lower than the same time last year.

The major purchase index and savings index both jumped by nine points and four points respectively. The major purchase index stands at -32, which is 30 points lower than June 2019.

GfK client strategy director Joe Staton said: “We have a six-point uptick in the overall index score, with all measures up, and particularly strong increases in future perceptions of personal finances and the economy.

“But we still have a story that’s about negative numbers, so it’s too early to say that consumers are moving on from the Covid-19 crisis.

“The initial fall we announced on April 6 (-9 down to -34) was the biggest ever since this survey’s origins in 1974. You have to go way back to the 1979 oil crisis to find anything that comes close.

“This latest improvement may be misleading. Consumers appear to be confused and some are not sure what to think.

“Yes, we have seen queues as some shoppers return to battered high streets. But with economists warning that the post-lockdown upturn might not restore GDP to pre-Covid-19 levels, and with the labour market set for more job losses, we have to question whether we are seeing early signs of economic recovery or that infamous ‘dead cat bounce’. Most bets will be on the dead cat.”