Retail sales slip in frosty start to Christmas trading season

UK retail sales declined 3.3% year on year during November, according to the latest BRC and KPMG sales monitor, in stark contrast to 2.6% growth last year. 

Online channels bore the brunt of the downturn, with non-food online sales plummeting 10.3% compared to the previous year as shoppers held back in anticipation for Black Friday promotions. The online penetration rate also dipped slightly to 40.6%, down from 41.4% in November 2023. 

Food sales managed to eke out growth at 2.4% over the three months to November overall, non-food retailers faced steeper challenges, with sales decreasing by 2.1% year on year.

In-store non-food sales decreased 2.2% year on year over the three months to November, against an increase of 2.2% in November 2023.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “While it was undoubtedly a bad start to the festive season, the poor spending figures were primarily down to the movement of Black Friday into the December figures this year. Even so, low consumer confidence and rising energy bills have clearly dented non-food spending. Spending on fashion was particularly weak as households delayed purchases of new winter clothing, while health spending was boosted by the season’s arrival of coughs and colds.

“Retailers will be hoping that seasonal spending is delayed not diminished and that customers get spending in the remaining weeks running up to Christmas. If not, retailers will be feeling the squeeze from both sides as reduced revenues are met with huge additional costs next year. The Budget, as well as the introduction of new packaging levies, will cost retailers over £7bn extra next year. How effectively the government works with the industry to mitigate these costs will determine the extent of price rises and job losses in the future.”

KPMG UK head of consumer, retail and leisure Linda Ellett said: “Along with the cold snap at the end of the month, retail sales also went into minus numbers for November.

“An upturn in health product buying also signalled that the winter months had arrived and, along with food and drink, was one of very few categories to see in-store or online sales growth.

“While the majority of November’s data tells a disappointing tale for the retail sector, this reporting didn’t include Black Friday week, so the hope for retailers is that consumers were being savvy shoppers and that the promotional push in the last days of the month saw held-back consumer spend materialise and mitigate what is otherwise a disappointing month. If not, then we may see some retailers launching Christmas sales early.”

While IGD chief executive Sarah Bradbury said: “Post-October Budget, shoppers have likely noticed the media reaction from businesses, but this hasn’t significantly shifted their behaviour. November’s grocery market performance shows year-on-year growth in both value and volume. IGD’s latest research highlights signs of festive cheer, with 5% more shoppers than last year  (41% vs 36% in 2023) planning to spend what they want this Christmas. However, despite this uplift, it’s unlikely to be a bumper Christmas for all, as many remain focused on budgeting. The festive optimism is there, but the underlying caution means spending will still be influenced by economic pressures, especially on out-of-home activities.”