Retail footfall forecast to drop in lead-up to Christmas as cost-of-living pressure continues

It forecasts that footfall across UK retail destinations will drop month on month by 3.2% in September, representing the largest decline since January 2023.

It is predicted that footfall will decline by 0.1% in October and be flat in November.

However, MRI Software predicts that footfall in December will rise again by 5.1%, driven by higher footfall in retail parks and shopping centres over Black Friday and during December.

This forecasted rise will be the largest month-on-month increase in 2023, but it remains below the 5.8% increase in December 2022 footfall.

MRI Software insights director Diane Wehrle said: “With this additional financial burden for so many consumers just over the horizon, MRI Software anticipates that this will curtail consumers’ propensity to shop. 

“It is forecast that spending pressure will start to bite from September onwards, with drops in footfall from month to month over the three months from September to November, only increasing from November to December in the run-up to Christmas.”

The rise in footfall from November to December, driven mainly by Black Friday, will result in a 6.5% footfall increase in retail parks, a 10% rise in shopping centres and a 2% increase on high streets.

From September to December, it is forecast that footfall in shopping centres will average 0.3% below the same period in 2022, compared with 1.7% lower in high streets.

Wehrle added: “The largest hit on footfall will be felt by high streets, which is generally the case in the run-up to Christmas as shoppers head to larger shopping centres and retail parks, which lure shoppers through a wide range of brands in large stores in a single destination. 

“Despite this, we are forecasting that the drop in footfall from 2022 will be of a similar magnitude in both high streets and shopping centres in December (-2.5% and -2.6% respectively).”