The sector is banking on the combination of payday and a raft of promotional activity to kick-start Christmas sales this weekend after the stark warning from Seymour Pierce analyst Richard Ratner. Figures from shopper traffic monitor Footfall showed shopper numbers last weekend were down 15.1 per cent year on year.
Michael Ziff, chairman and chief executive of Stylo, which owns shoe chains Barratts and Priceless, said: 'This weekend, we have a massive amount of money to take. Every day is an important day in the run-up to Christmas. As to whether Christmas will be the worst in 25 years, I think it will be one of the worst.'
Opinion was split about the outlook for the festive period among retailers contacted by Retail Week. Fashion fared the worst amid unseasonally mild weather, but food retailers were in an upbeat mood. Tesco said it was expecting a strong Christmas, despite offering 20 per cent off all clothing this week.
Asda non-food trading director Peter Pritchard said: 'You cannot ignore the weather effect. It has a massive impact on fashion and because it is warm, people are not thinking about Christmas.'
Clinton Cards group managing director Clinton Lewin said it was too early to make predictions:
'I'll certainly be doing my hardest to prove Ratner wrong. We've got everything that we think is right lined up and, as long as the customers come through the doors, we think that will give us a fair crack of the whip.'
Despite Ratner's gloomy prediction, figures to be published by the British Retail Consortium next week are expected to show a solid overall performance during the first three weeks of November. Like-for-like sales are understood to have kept just within positive territory during the period.
The figures suggest that some fashion retailers are doing well, despite the general sense of malaise. Overall, like-for-like figures for the sector during the first three weeks of the month were positive, although this was against a very weak performance last November.
Winter warmer or cold turkey?
FOOD
Waitrose marketing director Christian Cull: 'I'm confident we're in for a good Christmas. What we are seeing is a strong desire from customers to have a thoroughly good Christmas.'
ENTERTAINMENT
The Entertainer managing director Gary Grant: 'Not every day is brilliant, but we're consistently pleased with figures. The biggest issue is maintaining stock. Toy sales on the internet are running at double last year. Gadget Shop is significantly up on last year.'
HEALTH & BEAUTY
Superdrug chief executive Euan Sutherland: 'The weather has been milder than usual this year and customers are thinking about Christmas a week later. The bigger macro-economic pressures will not affect Christmas. Retailers that are finding it difficult will begin discounting this week or next.'
DEPARTMENT STORES
House of Fraser chairman Don McCarthy: 'Last week wasn't great, but it wasn't through the floor. We're not overly optimistic about Christmas, but we're not pessimistic either. We have our Megadays and this weekend to come. A lot of this is weather-driven.'
FASHION
Mosaic Fashions chief executive Derek Lovelock: 'From what I've read, Richard Ratner seems to have a handle on how it has been. If that was to continue - and I hope it won't - Christmas will be very difficult.'
No comments yet