‘Spectre of no deal Brexit’ haunts worst September on record

On a total basis, sales fell 1.3% in September compared to a 0.7% increase in the same month last year. This was below the three-month average decline of 0.4% and the 12-month average growth of 0.2%, a new record low. It was also the worst September since the BRC-KPMG records began in 1995.

During the period, UK retail sales fell 1.7% on a like-for-like basis, after falling 0.2% the previous year. This was worse than the three-month average of -0.8% and 12-month average of -0.4% – the lowest 12-month average since August 2009.

In-store sales of non-food items fell 3.2% over the three months to September, worse than the 12-month average decline of 2.9%. During the same period, food sales registered a 0.3% uptick on a like-for-like basis and 1.2% increase on a total basis. This was below the 12-month average of 1.7%, the lowest since March 2017.

During the three months to September, non-food retail sales in the UK declined 1.7% on both a like-for-like and total basis. This was below the 12-month total average decrease of 1%.

Online sales of non-food products during September registered a slight 0.7% increase, the worst ever recorded. It was compared to a growth of 5.4% for the same period the previous year. 

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “With the spectre of a no-deal weighing increasingly on consumer purchasing decisions, it is no surprise that sales growth has once again fallen into the red.

“Many consumers held off from non-essential purchases, or shopped around for the bigger discounts, while the new autumn clothing ranges suffered from the warmer September weather. 

“With four months of negative sales growth since March, the ongoing political gridlock surrounding Brexit is harming both consumers and retailers. Clarity is needed over our future trading relationship with our closest neighbours, and it is vitally important that Britain does not leave the EU without a deal.”

KPMG UK head of retail Paul Martin said: “Ongoing Brexit uncertainty is clearly having a material impact on the consumer psyche, with all but one non-food category being in decline in September. Consumers are choosing to focus on the essentials, with food one of the few categories delivering growth.

“We will likely experience increased promotional activity to clear surplus stock, which doesn’t bear well for retailers desperately trying to make up for lost ground after several difficult months.”