Grocery sales forecast to exceed £13bn over Christmas for first time ever

Take-home grocery sales increased by 2.5% in the four weeks to December 1, as customers across the UK began gearing up for Christmas. 

Supermarket sales are expected to keep growing in the run up to the big day, with Kantar expecting total sales in the month of December to exceed £13bn for the first time since it began tracking grocery sales data – with December 23 forecast to be the busiest shopping day. 

“Sales of assorted sweet biscuits and biscuits for cheese both doubled in November compared with the month before, while 8% of us bought a Christmas pudding,” said Kantar head of retail and consumer insight Fraser McKevitt. 

“Many of us take the chance to treat ourselves at this time of year and retailers are rolling out seasonal product lines to help us celebrate in style. The proportion of spending on premium own label products reached 5% over the latest four weeks, and we expect it to climb even higher in December to nearly 7%.”

Kantar also expects the grocers to enjoy a bumper Christmas away from the food and drink aisles. Spending on grocers’ non-food items leapt by 21% in December 2023. 

Due to inflation, the cost of a Christmas dinner for four has jumped by 6.5% to £32.57 driven largely by the costs of turkey and vegetables. Wider grocery inflation remained “relatively stable” at 2.6%, according to Kantar. 

“Sales on promotion reached 30% in November, the highest since Christmas last year. It’s retailer price cuts, often accessed through loyalty cards that are really driving this. While multibuy promotions have stayed flat, spending on price cut offers has grown by 14%, worth £355m more than last year. Shoppers are grabbing the chance to spend that little bit more than usual on Christmas specials, and champagne, wine and spirits saw the biggest levels of buying on deal,” said McKevitt. 

Tesco hits highest share 

In the 12 weeks to December 1, supermarket giant Tesco hit its highest grocery market share since 2017 at 28.1%. The UK’s largest grocer’s sales grew 5.2% in the period. 

Sainsbury’s share increased by 0.3 percentage points to 15.9%, and spending through its tills was 4.7% higher than last year. The UK’s two biggest grocers now have a combined market share of 44%.

“The number of different retailers we visit in the run up to Christmas is higher than at other times during the year, including wider high street brands like M&S,” said McKevitt. “Just under one in three households, at 32%, bought food, drink and other groceries to have at home from M&S during the 12 weeks to 1 December and looking at grocery sales alone, spending at M&S rose by 10.4%.

Online retailer Ocado grew sales by 8.7% over the period, achieving a 1.8% share of the market and outpacing the total online market which grew by 3.6%, with shoppers spending £4.2bn on the channel overall across the 12 weeks.

Discounter Lidl was the fastest growing bricks-and-mortar grocer during the period, with a 6.6% jump in sales for the period and a 10% jump in footfall year-on-year. Aldi, by comparison, reported a 2.1% jump in sales during the period. 

Spending at Morrisons increased by 2%, while struggling grocer Asda saw sales drop by 5.6% during the period. Waitrose grew slightly ahead of the market, with spending increasing by 2.6%.