An early exit from the World Cup and weather that was more suited to the beach than the shopping mall didn’t augur well for a bumper June in the shops. Yet this week’s BRC sales figures, backed up by anecdotal evidence from leading retailers, suggest a steady recovery is continuing.

It’s nothing spectacular by any means. We’re certainly not going to see the boom times come back any time soon and the credit fuelled madness of the past few years is gone for good. But the market is still experiencing gentle growth in total sales and given the uncertainty about the economy that can’t be a bad thing.

It’s not easy for retailers, and the grocers would have benefited from a longer England run in the World Cup, while the hot weather can’t have been great for getting people into shopping centres. But the bulk of the high street is performing resiliently, with retailers getting their product offer and pricing right, and in many cases taking advantage of the consolidation that has taken place in the market over the past year to grow market share.

What everyone wants to know is if this is the calm before the storm. With the deferral of the VAT increase, the worst fears of the coalition’s Budget weren’t realised, but a concern has to be that none of the pain from the Government’s public sector cutbacks is being felt yet.

Come October - when the full extent of the cuts and what are likely to be significant public sector job losses are due to be spelt out - and it could be a different story. The weak trading conditions at the big ticket end of the market reflect how shoppers are already playing it safe when it comes to major purchases in anticipation of tougher times ahead.

Public spending cuts will undoubtedly have an impact on the spending power of some consumers, especially in the regions, but we have been here before. Many of our best known retailers have been preparing their shareholders for a markedly tougher consumer spending environment for the past two years, yet despite the ravages of the recession, the UK shopper has proved to be remarkably resilient. While interest rates remain at rock bottom levels, trading is unlikely to fall off a cliff.

That’s not say that retailers won’t need to be on top of their game over the year ahead, because they will.

But that is no different to how it has had to be through the recession, and those that have made it through are by and large in a more than fit state to tackle what lies ahead.

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