Consumer research: retailers should get set for a bumper Black Friday and a bright Christmas
After several lean years for every retailer not in the business of slinging turkey crowns and Brussels sprouts, this coming golden quarter looks set to bring some much-needed till ringing as well as festive cheer.
While the grocers have enjoyed at least three straight years of soaring Christmas sales, the wider retail sector has had to make do with the festive leftovers. Between the pandemic and the subsequent cost-of-living crisis, cash-strapped UK consumers have prioritised the turkey and trimmings over the presents.
This has meant that non-food retailers have had to get by with whatever margins they could make during the heavily promotional Black Friday and Cyber Monday periods and then hope to hoover up whatever last-minute sales they could manage in the run-up to the big day.
Happily, new consumer data from YouGov shows that customers are getting back into the Christmas spirit in 2024. This should mean a few more presents under the tree for non-food retailers this yuletide, while still leaving the grocers’ stockings positively heaving.
So how are UK consumers planning to shop this Christmas and how are retailers and industry experts seeing the golden quarter playing out?
Grocers have enjoyed at soaring Christmas sales in recent years - Source: Getty Images
Grocers have enjoyed at soaring Christmas sales in recent years - Source: Getty Images
72% of consumers said they plan to spend more or the same on Christmas presents this year - Source: Getty Images
72% of consumers said they plan to spend more or the same on Christmas presents this year - Source: Getty Images
More the merrier
YouGov’s Christmas gifting consumer report 2024 provides a wealth of encouraging data for the retail sector, mere weeks away from the all-important start of peak trading.
In a survey of more than 1,700 people conducted between August 12 and September 3, 2024, 72% of respondents said they plan on spending more or the same on Christmas presents this year, compared to last.
By comparison, just two in 10 respondents said they anticipated spending less than last year during the festive period.
The report found that on average, Christmas gifters in the UK spent £320 on average last year – with 39% spending between £200 and £499, and a further 19% spending on average £500 or more on presents.
“Christmas is key for retailers, and our research indicates that they can expect it to be a good one this year,” says YouGov’s UK head of consumer insights Sarika Rana.
“Despite the economic pressures they are facing, most consumers in the UK don’t intend to scale back on their festive gift spending.”
This has been backed up by the retailer’s own customer research, with Marks & Spencer boss Stuart Machin saying, “Our customers are anticipating they’re going to spend more this Christmas than last year.”
Meanwhile, WHSmith boss Carl Cowling anticipates a strong performance from the brand’s Toys ‘R’ Us stores this Christmas.
M&S top of the shops?
After smashing interim results expectations at its recent financial update, there’s more potential good news in the offing for high-flying Marks & Spencer in the run-up to Christmas.
The retail giant topped YouGov’s BrandIndex in both the “top buzz-driving general and high street retail brands” (table one) and “high street fashion retail brands” (table two) in December 2023 – beating the likes of Next, Ikea, Adidas and fierce rivals John Lewis in the process.
Rank | Brand name | Net buzz score: December 2023 |
|---|---|---|
1 | Marks & Spencer | 21.1 |
2 | Ikea | 17.0 |
3 | John Lewis | 13.3 |
4 | B & M Bargains | 11.2 |
5 | Dunelm | 11.1 |
6 | Home Bargains | 10.2 |
7 | Argos | 9.6 |
8 | Boots | 8.1 |
9 | Waterstones | 7.7 |
10 | The Range | 7.7 |
Rank | Brand name | Net buzz score: December 2023 |
|---|---|---|
1 | Marks & Spencer | 20.4 |
2 | Next | 10.4 |
3 | TK Maxx | 9.9 |
4 | Nike | 9.2 |
5 | TU Clothing | 8.5 |
6 | Skechers | 7.9 |
7 | The North Face | 7.0 |
8 | George | 6.8 |
9 | Adidas | 6.6 |
10 | H&M | 5.8 |
“While there is still plenty of time for Britain’s retailers to compete for the 2024 crown, we can see how they fared last year,” says YouGov’s Rana. “In 2023, the big winner was Marks & Spencer, and all eyes will be watching to see if they can repeat that stellar performance this year.”
Given how things are going at M&S right now, you’d be a fool to bet against them.
Hark! How the tills ring...
In recent years, the increasingly vital Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sales period has become an increasingly digital event, with customers migrating online to hunt out the best sales and secure them.
However, the YouGov data shows that shopping for Christmas itself is also becoming an increasingly online pursuit for Britons. Indeed, the majority of YouGov respondents (66%) said they planned to make most of their gift purchases either through a retailer’s direct website or through an online platform like Amazon or Etsy.
Broken down by age cohorts, 25 to 34-year-olds are most likely to shop online directly through a retailer’s website, while 45 to 54-year-olds are most likely to use ecommerce platforms and marketplaces.
What about the age cohort most likely to shop in stores? That would be Gen Z, with half of 18 to 24-year-olds planning on making most of their festive purchases in a store this year.
Continuing the theme of recent years, YouGov expects the coming Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales period to be crucial to the overall performance of the golden quarter.
“Our research shows that online retailers are likely to clean up this Christmas,” says YouGov’s Rana. “Interestingly though, the slightly old-fashioned tradition of a Christmas trip to the shops is clearly still alive among Generation Z.”
Christmas apparel
In yet more good news for non-food retailers, the majority of YouGov respondents are planning on buying clothing, books, gift cards, vouchers and beauty products for loved ones and friends this Christmas.
Some 49% of 1,700 respondents said they would be buying clothes as a gift, with 46% buying books, 43% gift cards and vouchers, and 42% purchasing cosmetics and beauty products.
These categories beat out old Christmas favourites such as toys, jewellery, and a recent festive favourite: tech products.
When broken down by gender, the data shows that clothing still wins out in the non-food categories with both men and women. Amongst men, tech products jump up to 30% of respondents, while health and beauty products and books are both favoured by female shoppers.
Boots head of gift transformation and strategic brand partnerships Jenna Whittingham-Ward told Retail Week the health and beauty giant is “betting big” on channels like beauty performing well over Christmas.
“This will be the biggest beauty Christmas we’ve ever had,” she promised. “I think for us, beauty gifts feel personal. We’re going big on beauty this year across all price points.”
Sainsbury’s boss Simon Roberts said that the retail giant’s non-food businesses such as Argos were in a “good spot” going into the golden quarter, and that the business has enjoyed “three strong Christmases in a row, and we’re preparing for a fourth one to come.”
“The levels of intended spending we’re seeing are significant,” YouGov’s Rana concludes. “Because Britons are a generous bunch. The 2024 Christmas period has the potential to be a fantastic holiday season for retailers everywhere.”
“This will be the biggest beauty Christmas we’ve ever had. I think for us, beauty gifts feel personal. We’re going big on beauty this year across all price points”
Old favourites such as toys were topped by clothing, cosmetics and beauty products
Old favourites such as toys were topped by clothing, cosmetics and beauty products
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